The Top Four Questions I’m Asked About Social Security

9-Minute Read

Social Security can be both an entertaining and frustrating topic of conversation. Despite the emotions it may provoke, it’s worth understanding how the system works and how you can optimize your benefits. During retirement, it may be your only source of income produced outside of your investment portfolio.

I’ve been fascinated by the Social Security system throughout my career as a financial planner. I had the pleasure of hosting webinars on the topic. I also regularly volunteer with different organizations to help retirees understand their claiming options.

I thought it would help to pull together the key concepts of Social Security into one piece. Here I share answers to the four most frequently asked questions I’ve received.

How are My Social Security Benefits Determined?

First understand that Social Security is an insurance system. During your working years, you probably notice the deductions from your paycheck or if self-employed, the additional taxes you’re required to pay. These taxes are not going into a dedicated account on your behalf. I’m sorry to disappoint! Instead, the taxes are like insurance premiums that cover a massive pool of people. That is millions of US taxpayers!

Have a “Full” Retirement

One key to understanding Social Security is learning your Primary Insurance Amount, hereinafter called PIA. What the PIA tells you is the monthly Social Security income you can expect to receive if you claim benefits at your so-called full retirement age.

  • For most people making a claiming decision today, the full retirement age is around age 66. But it’s age 67 if you were born in 1962 or later.
  • The full retirement age is not necessarily the age you retire. You might retire well before or after this age.
  • You might also claim benefits before or after this full retirement age. There are some tradeoffs we will cover shortly.

The Regressive Nature of Social Security Income

Back to the PIA. How it is determined is subject to some detailed calculations, but it basically comes down to this:

  • Your benefit is based on your highest 35 years of earnings. If you work less than 35 years, but not less than 10 years, you’ll still qualify for benefits.
  • Most earnings from your past working years are indexed (adjusted) for inflation.
  • These indexed wages are then averaged and put through a formula.

The interesting result from this formula, without getting into the math, is that the system is regressive. That means if you’ve been a lower earner during your career, then your Social Security income will represent a higher percentage of your average earnings income. If you’ve been a higher earner, you will receive a lower percentage.

If the system were progressive, the opposite would be true. Essentially, Social Security replaces a higher percentage of income for those who earn less, and vice versa.

How Do I Estimate My Own Social Security Benefits?

If you’re not already receiving Social Security benefits, the first step would be to obtain your benefits statement. You may remember a time when these statements were mailed to you. For most that doesn’t happen anymore. Here’s how to access them online:

  • Visit https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/
  • If you don’t already have an account, you will need to create one and go through some identity verification steps.
  • Otherwise, sign in and access your latest statement.

One thing I will caution you about these statements is that benefit levels shown assume you continue your current earnings trajectory until you reach your full retirement age. However, if you plan to retire earlier or your most recent earnings do not match your expectations for future years, you should run a more detailed calculation.

There are several ways to do this. Financial planners typically have good tools and software. But one method you can try yourself is the SSA.gov online benefits calculator. This allows you to enter in your specific past earnings history and your projected earnings from now until your desired retirement age. Some care is needed to interpret the results, but I’ve usually found this calculator provides a reasonable estimate.

Side note: There are also disability related benefits that can be paid through the Social Security system. You will also see estimates of this on your statements. But how the disability side works is beyond the scope of this piece.

How do I Optimize My Social Security Claiming Decisions?

This is a weighty question. The points covered so far may help you better understand the Social Security system and how much monthly income you can expect. It gets more interesting when the time comes to claim benefits.

More strategy is needed because you can claim Social Security benefits between ages 62 and 70. There are some exceptions for widows and widowers. How do you determine the age in this eight-year window that makes the most sense for you? There is no one correct answer for all families, but there are some guiding principles. What follows comes from my own research on the topic as well as more in depth analysis from the authors Reichenstein and Meyer.

Single Individuals May Have an Easier Decision

The claiming decision is usually simpler for unmarried individuals than for married couples. The general rule is this: Your cumulative lifetime Social Security benefits are approximately the same at age 85 no matter when you begin your benefits. 

You might read that and think it doesn’t matter when you claim. But there could be reasons you would want to claim benefits earlier (closer to age 62) or later (closer to age 70).

  • Factors in favor of earlier claiming: shorter life expectancy or higher real (after inflation) investment return assumptions.
  • Factors in favor of delayed claiming: longer life expectancy or lower real investment return assumptions.

Your own personal circumstances will play a role, but it often comes down to looking at these two dimensions.

  • Life Expectancy – you might roughly use age 85 as a baseline. If you expect to live much longer than 85, or simply want to plan for longevity, then consider if you can delay your claiming. If your life expectancy is much less than 85, then you likely have a strong case for claiming earlier.
  • Investment Returns – this is a trickier and more nuanced concept. But let’s put it this way. For every year you delay claiming your Social Security benefits, you can expect an increase in your monthly income benefits of around 6 to 8 percent. If your investment assets are deployed in a way where you expect a much larger return relative to those Social Security increases, you might be inclined to claim earlier (closer to 62). Then vice versa (claim closer to 70) if you expect a much smaller relative return.

I understand if you don’t have much conviction in an expected investment return. One approach, if financially viable for you, is to take it one year at a time starting at 62. You might start with the intention of delaying your claiming. But you retain the option each year to claim depending on how your life and circumstances change. It’s tougher to undo a claim of benefits if you claim too early and change your mind later.

One More Thing for Married Couples to Fight About

The claiming decision is more complex for couples. We can’t get into all the combinations here, but here are two general rules I’ve found that often get to the essence.

Rule #1: For married couples with only one earner, it usually doesn’t pay to delay claiming for the earning spouse because it also delays benefits for the non-earning spouse.

This is because there is a spousal benefit interaction to consider. In a household with one earner, the non-earning spouse has the right to receive a spousal benefit approximately equal to one half the earning spouse’s benefit. The catch is that the earning spouse must claim benefits first. Delayed claiming could be sub-optimal in cases where the spousal benefit is postponed for too long.

However, if there’s a large age gap between the higher earning spouse and the lower earning one, consider the next rule.

Rule #2: The spouse with the higher PIA should begin benefits primarily based on the life expectancy of the younger spouse.

This one is less intuitive. But it comes down to factoring in Social Security’s survivor benefits. While there are nuanced rules here, generally the surviving spouse gets to continue receiving the higher of the two benefits that were paid while both spouses were alive.

Recall that life expectancy is a key factor for single individuals. It’s the same for couples, except think of it like a joint life expectancy. At the risk of sounding too much like an actuary, here’s another way to put it: if the lower earning spouse is expected to live well beyond the age the higher earner would have turned 85, the couple’s cumulative benefits are typically maximized if the higher earner delays the claim of benefits to age 70.

If that sounds too complicated, don’t worry. I encourage you to consult with a financial planner to help model your options and consider the latest rules and regulations around Social Security. Your planner can also help you consider other tax strategies that can tilt the decision towards earlier or later claiming. For example, delaying Social Security often make Roth IRA conversions more appealing in the early years of your retirement.

Will Social Security be There When I Need it?

Sometimes you may hear comments from friends or the news like this: “Social Security is Broke” or “There will be no Social Security left by the time you retire”. Is there any truth to this? Is this pessimism warranted?

According to the latest actuarial report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, the trust fund for regular benefits (excluding disability) is projected to deplete by the year 2034. That doesn’t sound good, right?

It may help to consider what happens after depletion. First is that tax revenues received after 2034 should be sufficient to fund 80 percent of the program’s costs for most of the next 75 years. That’s because there’s still an expectation of having workers continue to pay into the system. It’s true that 80 percent wouldn’t be a great outcome, but at the same time it’s far from saying you will receive no Social Security altogether.

It would probably be more accurate if concerned people said something like this instead: “The ratio of workers (those paying into the system) to beneficiaries (those receiving benefits) is lower today than it was in the past. This trend is unlikely to revert any time soon.” Ok, maybe that’s not as provocative. But the issue here does largely come down to demographics.

In my view, Social Security is unlikely to disappear, but future benefits are likely to be cut if no action is taken.

 Potential Legislation to the Rescue?

While many are concerned about the depletion rate of the Social Security trust fund, you may have some hope that sustainability can be restored through legislative changes. Aside from outright cutting future benefits, here are a few less painful possibilities:

  • Increase Payroll Taxes –The current payroll tax for Social Security is 12.4% If you’re employed, you pay 6.2% of your wages and your employer covers the other half. If you’re self-employed, you cover both portions with a few caveats in the final calculation. It’s possible for this tax rate to outright increased, but it may less politically feasible. Another approach would be to leave the tax rate alone and adjust the base on which it’s applied. Currently you’re taxed only on the first $147,000 of wages earned. Recent proposals under the Biden administration have suggested re-applying the payroll tax after your income reaches $400,000.
  • Adjust Future Crediting – In high inflationary periods like we’re in today, cost of living adjustments (COLA) to Social Security benefits become crucial. Today these adjustments are based off a specific measure of the consumer price index (CPI). There are various “CPI” measures used but none are likely to represent spending patterns of all retirees. Future legislation could look at reducing these COLAs. That would diminish the future purchasing power of your Social Security benefits.
  • Raising the Eligible Retirement Age – As noted earlier, Social Security benefits can be claimed as early as age 62. This minimum age or the full retirement age could be increased. My guess is that any change here would be phased in and only apply to younger generations. With a general upward trend over time for life expectancies, an argument could be made for going this direction.
  • Close More Loopholes? – There may be more solutions available than the three described above. I believe most of the notable loopholes have already been closed. For example, there used to be a way for a higher earning spouse to “file and suspend”. This was a way to allow a lower earning spouse to claim a spousal benefit while still maximizing the higher earning spouse’s benefit. Perhaps too many financial planners started touting this as an optimal strategy, and the Social Security gatekeepers finally got wise to it.

These are just a few ideas to keep the Social Security system sustainable. Congress may have more pressing issues now. The projected trust fund depletion year of 2034 is still several election cycles away. But how much longer will this proverbial can be kicked down the road?

I hope you enjoyed this primer on Social Security. If you have comments or questions on this piece, please drop me a line at: [email protected]

References

  1. https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/
  2. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/AnypiaApplet.html
  3. https://www.amazon.com/Social-Security-Strategies-Optimize-Retirement/dp/0615457533
  4. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/withdrawal.html
  5. https://krishnawealth.com/is-now-the-time-to-do-a-roth-ira-conversion/
  6. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/trust-funds-summary.html

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